Methods and Techniques of Sales Forecasting

Sales forecasting methods and techniques vary from company to company.

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Decomposition stands as one of the most common statistical sales forecasting methods. Decomposition belongs to the time series family of forecasting methods. Decomposition looks at four variables that control the value of “x” over a certain time period. In simpler terms, decomposition uses a product’s trend component, cyclical component, seasonality and irregular components to forecast the future value of the product over a given time period. Decomposition looks at each component separately to determine a forecast value for the specified component and then combines the data output into an overall forecasted value. A variety of statistical decomposition methods exist.

Unlike decomposition, which uses the entire history of a product as the forecast input, simple exponential smoothing uses a weighted moving average. Because simple exponential smoothing seeks to reduce, or smooth out, the irregular patterns in a product over time, this forecasting method works best with products whose main component exhibits strong cyclical and irregular patterns.

Census X-11 resembles a standard decomposition method because it uses the same variables trend, seasonality, cyclicality and irregularity as forecast inputs. The difference comes from how it uses these variables. It places more emphasis on the seasonal and cyclical components of the product. Census X-11 also uses a specific number of trading days in the month. Using trading days allows this forecast method to weigh the future forecast by the number of trading days used in the forecast input.

All forecasters use a different technique when performing forecasting activities. Some forecasters prefer to forecast in a vacuum—not using input from other sources other than the data. This technique rarely works for any extended period of time. In most businesses the best source of data comes from the human elements involved in the business. Forecasting in a vacuum disregards this important source of data. Collaborative forecasting techniques such as collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment use internal company resources and resources from suppliers to create a mutually agreed upon forecast.

When considering what forecast methods and techniques to use remember this, forecasts are always wrong. The best method and technique is the one that keeps the business running efficiently and at the least cost. Don’t get bogged down in theories and methodologies or getting a 100 percent accurate forecast.

From 2002-2006, Kenneth Hamlett was publisher and head writer for UNSIGNED Music Magazine, an online publication with over 100,000 readers. Prior to establishing UNSIGNED, Hamlett was a business solutions analyst and spent 15 years formulating and writing proposals for supply chain business solutions. He is a graduate of the New York Institute of Photography.

Windows Logo Key “Fave 10″ Shortcuts

Often I sound like a broken record. IRL (in real life), on my blog and here at Attorney at Work, I’m constantly repeating this mantra: “Don’t work for your computer, put your computer to work for you.” Sometimes small bits of information that would make our day more efficient are overlooked (or forgotten). But over the course of a work year, a few less keystrokes here … and fewer mouse reaches there … can add up to a lot of time saved!

Judicious use of the Windows Logo key is one of those simple ways you can easily work smarter, with very little up-front effort—great bang for your keyboarding buck.

The Windows Logo key (also known as the Windows key or Start key) is that little key on the lower left side of your keyboard that typically sits to the left of the Alt key:

It’s not there just to look pretty, it’s there to work for you. When pressed in conjunction with other keys, the Windows Logo key will help you quickly carry out basic tasks that would normally have you reaching (inefficiently) for your mouse. There are many Windows Logo key combination shortcuts, but these are my “fave 10.” (The first five work in both Windows 7 and Windows XP, the next five in Windows 7 only.)

Windows Logo key, by itself. Okay, this is not a combo. But go ahead and press the Logo key and watch the Windows Start Menu immediately appear, with the cursor flashing in the Search box (Win 7). Instant menu, instant search.Windows Logo key + D key. Have an annoying nosy neighbor peering over your shoulder? This combo will minimize all open windows, sending you straight to your desktop. Once that nosy neighbor wanders off, Press again to restore your immediately previous view.Windows Logo key + E key. Immediately open up a Windows Explorer window, open at My Computer view.Windows Logo key + F key: The fastest way to search. This key combo takes you straight to Windows Search, ready for your input. Your search results will depend on your search settings.Windows Logo key + L key. Indispensable for immediately locking your system. If you only ever adopt one Windows Logo key, make it this one. Never leave your computer without locking it.Windows Logo key + T key. Cycle through programs on your Taskbar. This one comes in really handy when your trusty mouse is less than trusty.Windows Logo key + Tab key. Hold down the Windows Logo key, while continuously pressing the Tab key to cycle through your open programs in 3D view—when you land on the program you want to switch to, take your fingers off the keys and that program window will come to the top! (Note: If you have Windows Aero turned off this key combo will not work). For those not using Windows Aero try this alternative: Hold down the Alt key while continuously pressing Tab to pop up a little window allowing you to cycle through your open programs. Very handy!Windows Logo key + Up Arrow key. Program not opening maximized? Rather than reach for the mouse, press this key combo for instant maximizing. (Then try the same with the left, right and down arrows—minimize, maximize to the right or to the left.)Windows Logo key + Shift Left Arrow keys. My new best friend and yours, too, if you use dual monitors. Flip that open window straight over to your other monitor, without grabbing the program’s title bar with your mouse and dragging. Repeat the key combo to move it back (or use the Windows Logo key in combo with Shift + Right Arrow).Windows Logo key + P key: If you work with dual monitors (or a laptop and projector) and need to regularly change your display between Computer Only, Duplicate, Extend or Project Only, this key combo is for you. Try it—you’ll never go back to manually changing those settings.

And that’s my list. Print it out and tape it near your monitor (because sometimes low-tech works best), until you’ve memorized your faves. Then put that Windows Logo key to work for you! Why work harder when you can work smarter?

Vivian Manning is the IT Manager at Barriston Law LLP in Barrie, Bracebridge and Cookstown, Ontario. Prior to moving into IT, Vivian practiced law at Barriston LLP (formerly Burgar Rowe PC) primarily in the area of Municipal Land Development, with of 17 years in private practice before switching to the IT side of the law office. She currently indulges her love of teaching tech through her blog Small City Law Firm Tech, where she provides “tips of the day.”

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She’s Forgetful? Hope It’s Just Stress

Your long-tenured secretary arrives at work in the morning and forgets to turn on her workstation lights, misfiles a court pleading and fails to confirm a client meeting. While this isn’t the first time, you want to believe it’s just temporary. But you fear it’s something more. Compassion may make the difference between paying employment lawyers to help you navigate through a legal quagmire—and resolving a human issue quickly, without conflict or drama.

While many human resources situations require direct, aggressive and decisive action, others are better handled with sensitivity, compassion and patience. This situation is clearly in the second category. If approached in an accusatory and confrontational manner, your secretary is likely to clam up, feel anxious, attacked and alone, and may suspect she is a victim of disability discrimination. By approaching her in a calm, unassuming, non-threatening and respectful manner, however, you can often diffuse a situation that has the potential to escalate. The channels of communication are opened, and a positive conversation that might actually lead to resolving the problem becomes far more likely.

Just as you would with any client, playing to your secretary’s strengths is far more effective than pointing out her deficiencies. As difficult as it is, avoid projecting the classic self-fulfilling prophecy.

Forgetful and distracted employee performance could mean many things. Keep in mind that any number of factors could be contributing to performance problems. Depression or other health aliments are common and can be brought on or worsened by the stress of caregiving, for example, while trying to earn a living. Memory deficiencies could be symptomatic of a larger problem—or something quite small. Jumping to a quick conclusion may be in no one’s best interest.

Discuss the problems you’re observing with your secretary in an objective and supportive manner, and ask for her ideas in coming up with solutions. Rather than respond defensively (the first step in escalation), our experience has been that your secretary may well appreciate the time and attention you’re devoting to her performance problems. Take the time to offer your ear while avoiding the temptation to “diagnose,” and she will be more likely to provide the insight you need to identify remedial measures that work for both of you. When discussing solutions, your secretary is more likely to accept what is being offered when it comes from a place of compassion and sensitivity.

Take a balanced approach that strikes a chord between understanding your secretary’s limitations and avoiding exposure to future risk. By doing so, you will likely satisfy both interests evenly and in the most humane way possible. Here are keys to a compassionate approach:

Identify the problem.Address the underlying factors, but only if volunteered—avoid the temptation to diagnose.Start a mutual, respectful dialogue concerning solutions—adjust job responsibilities, establish procedures to address errors with routinely monitored task lists, and so on.Ensure that the problem is remedied.Routinely check-in and follow up.Offer additional suggestions for improvement on an ongoing basis, and document everything.

Don’t rush things. There is no established timetable to remedy the problem. One size does not fit all.

Raymond W. Martin is a partner Wheeler Trigg O’Donnell LLP in Denver. He has represented some of Colorado’s largest employers in labor and employment litigation in the federal and state courts in the Rocky Mountain region for more than 30 years. Alison L. Shaw is the head paralegal of the labor and employment practice group at Wheeler Trigg, where she performs case management responsibilities from the initial information-gathering stage through discovery and trial. She is experienced in conducting sensitive internal HR investigations for clients in cases pending in federal and state courts as well as in administrative proceedings.

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Stop Selling Eight-Tracks and Start Unbundling

When was the last time you bought an entire album of music from a single artist? Most of us create playlists with tracks purchased on Apple iTunes from multiple artists and albums. We create exactly what we want to jive with our moods and circumstances. Freedom of choice is important to us as consumers, and the convenience of the Internet has only made this trend more pervasive.

The shift in consumer culture has affected the legal profession as much as any industry. Consumers are looking for ways to pick and choose legal assistance the same way they address their other purchases. They want choice, free information, fixed prices and a more hands-on approach to meeting their own needs. In the legal services marketplace, DIY legal services are more and more in demand—just look at the growth of online legal services companies such as LegalZoom and Rocket Lawyer.

As consumers ourselves, we understand the appeal of the trend. As lawyers looking to grow our practices, though, how do we meet this need for legal services while maintaining high-quality standards for legal work and complying with our rules of professional conduct? We integrate “unbundled legal services” into our law practices.

Unbundling in the legal profession is nothing new. Also called “limited scope representation,” “disaggregated legal services” or “a la carte” legal services, unbundling is practiced by lawyers in all firm sizes—whether or not they call it by one of these names. Unbundling occurs when the lawyer takes a client’s legal need and breaks it down into separate components. The lawyer agrees to provide the client with only certain portions of legal work and the client is responsible for the rest. Forms of unbundling tend to include more transactions-based legal work, such as legal document drafting or reviewing contracts, but it may also be integrated into litigation-based practices in the form of limited appearances, coaching and strategy sessions, or discovery work. Collaborative law and alternative or online dispute resolution services may also be unbundled for clients.

ABA Model Rule 1.2(c) allows for limited scope representation if it is “reasonable under the circumstances and the client gives informed consent.” Forty-one states have adopted this rule, some verbatim and others with modifications. Many states have rules or ethics opinions regarding the practice of “ghostwriting” and limited appearances, forms of unbundling that are popular with pro se litigants. Before unbundling, check with your state’s rules and ethics opinions.

There are other best practices for avoiding malpractice when unbundling. Any lawyer unbundling must have the client sign a limited scope engagement agreement that clearly defines the scope of representation. Checklists of the client’s responsibilities and deadlines as well as general education about their legal matter are important to provide along with the agreement.

If you wish to unbundle, set up procedures for unbundling specific practice area services ahead of accepting a client for unbundling. Clients must be informed of the difference between full service and limited scope as part of the process, so they may make educated decisions about their choice in legal services. However, it is the lawyer’s responsibility to determine, on a case-by-case basis, whether a legal need may be unbundled or if it requires full-service representation. For example, it may not be appropriate to unbundle in certain practice areas, such as criminal defense, where the client’s interests would best be served with ongoing representation.

To tap into this legal marketplace for unbundling, many lawyers are finding ways to deliver unbundled services online through a virtual law office. Others are listing these services a la carte on their websites and will handle the unbundled services in-person at their office. Whether delivered online or in a traditional law office setting, unbundling provides us with a way of meeting the public’s need for better choice and control. It may also serve as a competitive marketing strategy for law firms wanting to get an edge in the existing legal marketplace where consumers are seeking DIY, unbundled solutions to just about everything. Lawyers who figure out how to balance unbundling with full-service offerings will have an advantage. Stop selling them eight-tracks when they only need a single.

Find more information about how to unbundle for clients, including ethics issues and best practices for unbundling, here:

Stephanie Kimbro, MA, JD, is a member of Burton Law LLC and has served clients with unbundled North Carolina estate planning services online since 2006. She is the author of the new book Limited Scope Legal Services: Unbundling and the Self-Help Client as well as Virtual Law Practice: How to Deliver Legal Services Online and the forthcoming book The Lawyer’s Guide to Online Marketing Tools, published by the ABA LPM Section. She may be reached at skimbro@burton-law.com.

Stephanie will be speaking  on “The Consumer Law Revolution”—particularly how technology is changing the way lawyers provide legal services at all levels—at the upcoming College of Law Practice Management Futures Conference, October 25-26, at Georgetown Law Center in Washington, DC.And, on September 6, Carolyn Elefant of My Shingle and Andrea Cannavina of Legal Typist will dig deeper into retainer agreements, including those for unbundled services at the upcoming webinar, “The Art, Science & Ethics of the 21st Century Retainer Agreement.”

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Five Ways to Receive Credit Card Payments

Every law firm has a trust account and an operating bank account and allows clients to pay with a check or cash. But in this day, many clients also want to know, “Do you accept credit cards?” There are many options to consider when deciding if you’ll accept credit cards.

Recently I asked two groups on LinkedIn—one for small and solo law firms and one for small business owners—which service they use to accept electronic payments. The following were the top five responses.

First, though, this caveat: Before you begin using one of these services, consult your state’s ethics rules regarding electronic payments. There may be restrictions regarding which bank account you can use to accept payments using one of these services.

1. QuickBooks. If you already use QuickBooks to manage your accounts, you might consider activating QuickBooks’ Merchant Services for receiving credit cards. The basic credit card processing service has a $19.95 monthly fee plus a fee for each transaction: 1.64 percent plus 27¢ for a swiped card; 2.47 percent plus 27¢ for a keyed card. You’ll also have to pay an annual PCI-compliance fee based on your transaction volume.

The benefit of this service is it’s integrated into the QuickBooks you’re already using. Its transaction fee is lower than other services, too—but you have to balance that against the monthly fee, which could make the total cost higher than other services.

And if you want to have a card-swiper that attaches to your mobile device, QuickBooks has that, too, as part of its GoPayment service. That comes with a separate $12.95 monthly fee, plus a fee for each transaction. Check your QuickBooks support for additional options for accepting payments.

2. PayPal. PayPal is well-known and so commonly used to process payments that many clients ask, “Do you do PayPal?” It’s easy to set up a PayPal account with your email address and a bank account number. PayPal can be used to accept payments via credit cards, checks or customers’ PayPal accounts, and you can also use it to send invoices to clients. There’s no fee to set up your PayPal account and no monthly fees. You only pay a fee for each transaction. A payment up to $3,000 is 2.9 percent plus 30¢. A payment between $3,001 and $10,000 is 2.5 percent plus 30¢.

PayPal also offers a card-swiper that you can use with your iPhone, iPad or Android device. The fee to swipe a card is 2.7 percent.

3. Square. Square is a card-swiper that you can plug in and use with your iPhone, iPad or Android device. I’m seeing Square being used more and more in business. For example, I live in Phoenix where there are dozens of amazing food trucks, and I haven’t been to a truck that doesn’t use Square. Retail shops are also using Square attached to an iPad instead of having a traditional credit card processing machine. There’s no monthly fee to use Square, only a 2.75 percent per-swipe fee. They also have the option to use it for a $275/month fee and no additional charge per transaction.

The downside of using Square is you must physically swipe the person’s card. That means you can’t send clients an invoice and invite them to use Square’s website to pay it.

4. LawPay. LawPay is a payment processing service designed for lawyers. Unlike Square and PayPal, where you can only attach one bank account to your account, you can process transactions into your trust account or your operating account. It’s also set up to take all the fees for the service from your operating account, so you’ll never have to worry about inadvertently paying your processing fees with clients’ money. It costs $30 per month to use the service, and that includes online payments and the ability to separate earned and unearned portions of a single fee. There’s also a 20¢ to 25¢ fee per transaction.

5. Your bank. You can also contact the bank where you maintain your firm’s trust account and operating account and inquire about your options to receive electronic payments. Your bank may give you the ability to process payments without any additional fees. This is different from wire transfers that have fees for the sender and the recipient.

Especially if you are considering creating a virtual law office for your firm, you’ll want to explore whether your desired service comes with the ability to process credit cards and other electronic payments.

Ruth Carter is a lawyer, writer and speaker. Her virtual practice, The Carter Law Firm, focuses on intellectual property, social media, First Amendment and flash mob law. Ruth is a 2011 graduate of Arizona State University College of Law, known for her daring antics and outgoing personality, and co-founder of Improv Arizona. She also blogs weekly at UndeniableRuth.com. In her Attorney at Work column “Nothing But the Ruth,” she writes about the lessons she’s learning while building her new virtual practice.

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